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Disruptive Technology (With Chinese Translation)
#1
第四次產業革命:
如何迎接一個摧毀性的創業時代 (1)

1998年時, Kodak公司 有170,000 員工 ,銷售(冲洗)全球85%的照片,到2001年,公司就破產了。其實,數位照相機早在1975就發明了,但是積體電路、IC卻要等到2001年才能配合數位相機的速度需求。

現在因為人工智能(AI)的發展,配合更高速度的積體電路,科技正在加快速度的進展。據悉,在很短的5 -10年後,健保、自駕汽車、教育、服務業都將面臨被淘汰的危機。

1. Uber 是一家軟體公司,它沒有擁用汽車,卻能夠讓你「隨叫隨到」有汽車坐,現在,它已是全球最大的Taxi公司了。

2. Airbnb 也是一家軟體公司,它沒有擁有任何旅館,但它的軟體讓你能夠住進世界各地願出租的房間,現在,它已是全球最大的旅館業了。

3. 今年5月,Google的電腦打敗全球最厲害的南韓圍棋高手,因為它開發出有人工智能(AI)的電腦,使用能夠「自己學習」的軟體,所以它的AI能夠加速度的進步,達到比專家原先預期的、提前10年的,成就。

4. 在美國,使用IBM 的Watson電腦軟體,你能夠在幾秒內,就有90%的準確性的法律顧問,比較起只有70% 準確性的人為律師,既便捷又便宜。所以,你如果還有家人親友在讀大學的法律系,建議他們停學省錢,因為市場已大幅的縮減了,未來的世界,只需要現在10%的專業律師就夠了。

5. Watson 也已經能夠幫病人檢驗癌症,而且比醫生正確4 倍。

6. 臉書也有一套AI的軟體可以比人類更準確的鑒察(辨識)人臉,而且無所不在。

7. 到了2030年,AI的電腦會比世界上任何的專家學者還要聰明。

8. 2017年起,會自動駕駛的汽車就可以在公眾場所使用。約在2020年,整個汽車工業就會遭遇到全面性的改變,你再不需要擁用汽車。你可以用手機叫自動駕駛的車,來帶你到你想去的目的地。

9. 未來的世界,你再也不必擁有車,或花時間加油、停車、排隊去考駕照、交保險費,尤其是城市,將會很安靜,走路很安全,因為90%的汽車都不見了,以前的停車場,將會變成公園。

10. 現在,平均每10萬公里就有一次車禍,造成每年全球有約120萬人的死亡。以後有AI電腦控制的自動駕駛汽車,平均每1000萬公里才有一次車禍,約減少一百萬人死亡。因為保險費和需要保險的人極少,保險公司會面臨更多的倒閉風潮。

11. 大部份的傳統汽車公司會面臨倒閉。Tesla、 Apple、及 Google 的革命性軟體,將會用在每一部汽車上。據悉,Volkswagen 和 Audi 的工程師非常擔心Tesla革命性的電池和人工智能軟體技術。

12. 房地產公司會遭遇極大的變化。因為你可以在車程中工作,距離將不是選住房屋的主要條件之一。市民會選擇住在較遠、但是較空曠且環境優美的鄉村。

13. 電動汽車很安靜,會在2020變成主流。所以城市會很變成安靜,而且空氣乾淨。

14. 太陽能在過去30年也有快速的進展。 去年,全球太陽能的增產超過石油的增產。預計,到2025年時,太陽能的價格(低廉)會使煤礦業大量的破產。因為電費非常的便宜,淨化水及海水淡化的費用大減,人類將能解決人口增加的需水問題。

15. 健保:今年醫療設備商會供應如同「星球大戰」電影中的 Tricorder,讓你的手機做眼睛的掃瞄,呼吸氣體及血液的化學檢驗:用54個「生物指標」,就可檢驗出你是否有任何疾病的徵兆。因為費用低,幾年後,全球人類都可以有世界級的疾病預防服務。

16. 立體列印(3D printing):預計10 年內,3D列印設備會由近20000美元減到400美元,而速度增加100倍快。所有的「個人化」設計鞋子,將開始用這種設備生產,其他如大型的機場,其零件也能使用這種設備供應,至於人類太空船,也會使用這種設備。

17. 今年底,你的手機就會有3D掃瞄的功能,你可以測量你的腳送去做「個人化」鞋子。據悉,在中國,他們已經用這種設備製造了一棟6 層樓辦公室,預計到2027年時, 10% 的產品會用3D的列印設備製造。

18. 產業機會:

a. 工作:20年內,70-80% 的工作會消失,即使有很多新的工作機會,但是不足以彌補被智能機械所取代的原有工作。

b. 農業:將有 $100 機械人耕作,不必吃飯、不用住宅、及支付薪水,只要便宜的電池即可。在開發國家的農夫,將變成機械人的經理。溫室建築物可以有少量的水。到2018年,肉可以從實驗室生產,不必養豬、雞或牛。30%用在畜牧的土地,會變成其他用途的土地。很多初創公司會供給高蛋白質的昆蟲當成食品。

c. 到2020年時 ,你的手機會從你的表情看出,與你說話的人是不是說「假話」? 是否騙人的? 政治人物(如總統候選人)若說假話,馬上會被當場揭發。

d. 數位時代的錢,將是Bitcoin ,是在智能電腦中的「數據」。

e. 教育:最便宜的智能手機在非州是$10美元一隻。

f. 到2020年時,全球70%的人類會有自己的手機,所以能夠上網接受世界級的教育,但大部份的老師會被智能電腦取代。所有的「小學生」都要會寫 Code,你如果不會,你就是像住在Amazon森林中的原住民,無法在社會上做什麼。你的國家,你的孩子準備好了嗎?

參考一下;這也是矽谷 VC, Innovators,Entrepreneurs ... 談的資料。

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#2
The fourth industrial revolution: how to meet a devastating era of entrepreneurship (1) by 1998, Kodak Company has 170,000 employees, sales (processing) 85% pictures around the world, and by 2001, the company went bankrupt. In fact, the digital camera was invented as early as 1975, but integrated circuit, IC has to wait until 2001 to cope with the speed of the digital camera demand. Now because of artificial intelligence (AI) of development, with high speed integrated circuit technology is accelerating the speed of progress. It is reported that in a short period of 5-10 years later, health insurance, driving car, education, services will be faced with the prospect of a crisis.

1. Uber is a software company, it is not owned by car, it can make you "call" car seat, for now, it is already the world's largest Taxi Company.

2. the Airbnb is a software company, it does not own any hotels, but its software so that you can live all over the world willing to rent room, now, it is already the world's largest hotel.

3. in May this year, Google beat South Korea of the world's most powerful chess computer expert, because it develops artificial intelligence (AI) computer, use "learning" software, so the AI can acceleration of progress to reach 10 years earlier than experts had expected, and achievement.

4. in the United States, using IBM's Watson computer software, you can in a few seconds, he has 90% the accuracy of the legal adviser, accuracy compared to only 70% people-lawyers, is both easy and cheap. So, if you have family and relatives in the Faculty of law of the University, it is recommended that they are suspended from school to save money, because the market is sharply reduced, and future world, now just 10% a professional lawyer is enough.

5. Watson also has been able to help patients with cancer, and than the doctor right 4 times.

6. Facebook have an AI software can see more accurate than humans (identification) face, and ubiquitous.

7. by the year 2030, AI's computer was smarter than any of the experts and scholars.

8. starting in 2017, automatic cars can be used in a public place. Around the year 2020, the automotive industry as a whole will suffer from a comprehensive change, you don't need to hold the car. You can use a mobile phone to call the autopilotCar to take you to the destination you want to go.

9. the world of the future, you no longer have to have a car, or take the time to come on, stop and queued to get a driver's license, pay premiums, especially in cities, will be very quiet, walking is safe, because 90% of the cars are gone, the former parking lot, will be turned into parks.

10. now, the average car accident once in every 100,000 km, caused the deaths of about 1.2 million people worldwide each year. After AI computer-controlled automatic driving vehicle, an average of 10 million km is a car accident, about 1 million people were killed. Because of insurance and very few people need insurance, insurance companies will face more failure trend.

11. most of the traditional car companies will face closure. Tesla, Apple, and Google's revolutionary software will be used on each car. It is reported that Volkswagen and Audi engineers are very worried about Tesla's revolutionary battery technology and artificial intelligence software.

12. real estate company will suffer a great deal of change. Because you can work in your drive, distance is not one of the main conditions for the selected housing. People will choose to live in a far, but more spacious and beautiful countryside.

13. electric car is very quiet, and will in 2020 become the mainstream. So the city will be turned into a quiet and clean air.

14. solar have made rapid progress over the past 30 years. Last year, global production of excess oil production. Predicts that by 2025, the price of solar energy (low) will make coal mines a large number of bankruptcies. Because electricity is cheap, greatly reducing the cost of purifying water and desalination, humans will be able to solve the water problems of population growth.

15. health insurance: medical equipment this year Chamber of Commerce serving as the "Star Wars" movie Tricorder, let your cell phone does the eye scan, breathing gas and blood chemistry test: 54 "bio-pointer", you can check whether you have any signs of disease. Because of the low cost, a few years later, can have a world-class global human disease prevention services.

16. stereo printing (3D printing): ~ 10, 3D printing equipment will be reduced from nearly $20000 to $400, and speed increased 100 times faster. All of the "personal" design shoes, will start this deviceProduction, others such as major airport, its parts supply can also be used, as for human spacecraft, also use this equipment.

17. the end of the year, your cell phone will have a d scan feature, you can measure your feet to do "personal" shoe. It is learnt that, in China, they have used this equipment to make a 6-storey office building, projected by 2027, 10% product will use 3D printing equipment.

18. the opportunity: a.: 20 years cent jobs will disappear, even though there are many new jobs, but not enough to make up for the original work was replaced by intelligent machinery.

B.-Agriculture: $100 robot farming, not eating, not residential, and paid, as long as the cheapest battery. Developing country farmers, will become robots of managers. Greenhouse buildings can have a small amount of water. By 2018, the meat can be produced from the laboratory, no pigs, chickens and cows. 30% used in animal husbandry and land will be turned into land for other uses. Many startups will supply high-protein of insects as food.

C. by 2020, your phone will see it in your face, and you people said "lies"? Is cheating? Political figures (such as presidential candidate) lies, will be revealed on the spot.

D. money in the digital age, is Bitcoin are intelligent "data".

E. Education: cheaper smartphones in Africa is US $ $10 only.

F. by 2020, 70% of the world in which people would have their own cell phones, so Internet access to world-class education, but most of the teachers will be replaced by intelligent computers. All the "students" have to write Code, and if you can't, you're like the natives that live in the Amazon forest, unable to do in the community. Your country, your children ready for it? Refer to this Silicon Valley VC, Innovators, Entrepreneurs ... On the data.
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#3
Anyone who don't believe in disruptive technology will soon be replaced forever
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#4
More technologies like this will slowly take over the Internet 5.0. Once it have been solidified, everything will be further solidify again
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#5
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