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Foreign Stock Pick Of The Day
#71
Friday Mailbag: GoPro, the Zika Virus, Inflation… and More

During the tumultuous 1960s, the influential futurist Marshall McLuhan predicted that technology would transform human society into a “global village” of instantaneous communication that transcended national boundaries. McLuhan would recognize today’s online world.

Just as the printing press of the early Renaissance empowered individuals, the Internet is giving voice to the average person. Accordingly, the readership of Investing Daily functions as an interactive, highly integrated community.

Let’s see what the villagers have to say.

GoPro is a “no go”…

“What are your thoughts regarding wearable camera maker GoPro?” — Mike B.

Resist the Siren’s Call of GoPro (NSDQ: GPRO). This volatile stock is poised for a day of reckoning.

You should be wary of small companies that become instant Wall Street darlings by making flashy consumer gadgets. Unless the company has a deep bench of unique products, the fad invariably fades and the stock burns overly hopeful investors.

This dynamic describes GoPro, which has seen its fortunes wax and wane according to the fate of its product launches. The action camera maker still claims a cult-like following among consumers, but consider yourself warned: it remains a highly dangerous stock that you should avoid.

GoPro’s gizmos were all the rage at first, but the potential of the action camera market has attracted bigger competitors with greater financial wherewithal, such as consumer icon Apple (NSDQ: AAPL). There are better places for your money than GPRO.

Race for a Zika cure…

“We don’t hear much about the Zika virus anymore, but it still seems to be a global problem. Is there a biotech opportunity in fighting the disease?” — Larry R.

The Zika virus has faded from the headlines, but it certainly hasn’t gone away.

One company is in the lead to develop the first vaccine for the Zika virus: Sanofi (OTC: SNYNF). Headquartered in Paris, Sanofi is a global pharmaceutical company with a market cap of $106.2 billion. About one-third of the company’s revenue already derives from emerging markets, where a Zika vaccine would be targeted.

The Zika pandemic as yet can’t be prevented or treated by drugs or vaccines. Zika fever in pregnant women can cause abnormal brain development in their fetuses.

Researchers in Sanofi’s vaccine division, Sanofi Pasteur, are working on a Zika vaccine that would prevent both the infection and concurrent illness. Sanofi has a leg up over its competitors because it has already developed and received approval for vaccines to address viruses from the Zika family, notably vaccines for yellow and dengue fever.

The U.S. Army is collaborating closely with Sanofi to develop a vaccine and the government has granted the company funding. In December 2016, the Army announced that it planned to grant Sanofi exclusive license for large-scale manufacturing of an eventual vaccine.

Inflation rears its head…

“The new numbers from the Bureau of Labor Statistics point to rising inflation. Should I be worried?” — Gary C.

The experts at Investing Daily disdain the Federal Reserve-bashing, “hard money” zealots who constantly preach doom-and-gloom.

However, the latest data suggest that the inflation beast is stirring from its long slumber. Last week, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) posted its largest increase in nearly four years in January, spiking 0.6% last month after gaining 0.3% in December. January’s increase in the CPI was the biggest since February 2013.

As I’ve detailed in previous issues, now’s a good time to hedge your portfolio, preferably with gold and real estate.

Singin’ the investment blues…

“I’m afraid to pick up the newspaper these days. The world seems to be in turmoil. Should I sell my stocks?” — George G.

Whenever I scan today’s worrisome headlines, I’m reminded of a lyric sung by my favorite blues singer, Mose Allison: “I don’t worry ’bout a thing, ’cause I know nuthin’s gonna be alright.”

George, when hasn’t humankind faced worry? America survived the Civil War, the Great Depression, two World Wars, the Cold War… and disco. We’ll get through today’s tribulations. Here’s a tip for the prophets who repeatedly predict apocalypse: the end of the world only comes once.

I remember getting letters from readers who were upset that Obama had won election in 2008. These investors hated and feared the new president so intensely, they ignored my counsel to be patient and dumped all of their stocks. The result? These nervous Nellies missed the second-longest bull market in history.

The surest way to make money over the long haul is to control your emotions and see the world the way it really is, not the way you want it to be. Dispassionate analysis, not wishful thinking or fear, is the true path to investment wealth.

Yes, just reading the headlines these days is enough to make you gnash your teeth. Investors are anxious and with good reason. But at Investing Daily, we don’t rely on gut instincts, hunches or raw emotions. You won’t get rich by rolling the dice. We apply time-tested empirical data to cold, hard reality. And that’s how we find hidden value.

The corridors of power…

“Trump plans to massively boost infrastructure spending. Should I pile into construction stocks?” — Jennifer K.

Not necessarily. To be sure, Trump’s ambitious promises to fix America’s crumbling roads, bridges, highways and sewage treatment plants will boost construction companies, but you need to be selective. First of all, his plan is predicated on tax breaks and subsidies, not conventional federal spending. It’s also likely that firms with political clout will get the juiciest contracts.

That brings us to Fluor (NYSE: FLR), a construction giant that’s poised to reap the lion’s share. Fluor is well connected in the corridors of power in the nation’s capital and has been adept at beating out its rivals for lucrative contacts. For example, the company has its fingers in many mammoth transportation projects along the eastern seaboard. Look for Fluor’s prospects to get rosier as the building contracts get doled out in coming months.

Got a question or feedback? Send me a letter: mailbag@investingdaily.com — John Persinos

The future starts here…

Have you seen this video? It demonstrates an emerging technology that you’d expect to see on the USS Enterprise.

But get ready for a shock: this technology actually works and it’s available today.

Hundreds of billions of dollars worth of R&D is pouring into the development of this capability, which has the power to change our lives forever. One small-cap company is driving the technology… and early investors are positioned to get rich.
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#72
Monday’s Mail: Albert Einstein, Vladimir Putin, and Gordon Gekko

The headline reads like the beginning of a “walk into a bar” joke, but my newsletter today actually touches upon all three people. Let’s start with Einstein, the scientific genius whose theory of relativity forever disrupted our notions of the universe.

Einstein once said: “Technological progress is like an axe in the hands of a pathological criminal.” That’s one of the best (and most colorful) descriptions I’ve encountered about the social and business ramifications of tech disruptors.

As the tech-heavy NASDAQ continues to reach new highs, now’s a good time to answer recent letters devoted to the tech sector. I’ve cherry picked the emails that should interest you the most.

Quick note: If I haven’t answered your letters in this newsletter or individually via email, please be patient. Due to the sheer volume of mail and the often detailed nature of your questions, I can’t immediately get around to everyone. Okay, let’s dive into the electronic mailbag.

Cleaner modes of transportation…

“I’m convinced that electric cars are the wave of the future. They run on lithium batteries, so do you think lithium stocks are a good idea right now?” — Alan G.

I wrote about lithium in the February 15 issue (Here’s Your Chance to Invest in “The New Gasoline”). The silver-white metal is used to create heat-resistant glass, ceramics and lubricants.

The biggest growth driver for lithium is the burgeoning demand for lithium-ion batteries used in electric vehicles.

Elon Musk, co-founder and CEO of Tesla (NSDQ: TSLA) has indicated that he seeks a lithium supply to fill enough batteries to power 500,000 of the company’s electric vehicles per year by 2020.

Demand from clean transportation is a powerful tailwind for lithium-related companies, especially mining operations. However, you should be wary of the thinly capitalized penny mining stocks that have been springing up to exploit the lithium bonanza. Stick to established, large-cap players or you could get burned.

Up, up and away…

“The aviation sector appears to be thriving, defense in particular. What about the avionics and electronics companies that supply the cockpits?” — Brian T.

Look no further than the Growth Portfolio of our flagship publication Personal Finance, which holds Honeywell International (NYSE: HON).

Honeywell is a major maker of avionics for commercial and military aerospace, as well as a host of electronics for homes and businesses.

Despite lower energy costs overall, one of the biggest expenditures for aviation operators is fuel. For these profit-starved operators, the equation is simple: the lighter the aircraft, the less fuel it burns. New-generation aircraft are placing greater demands on pilots, requiring avionics manufacturers to squeeze more capabilities into fewer and smaller components.

These economic imperatives are boosting sales of the ultra-sophisticated, miniaturized avionics provided by Honeywell. The company’s electronics can be found in cockpits everywhere.

With a market cap of $96.1 billion, Honeywell commands a vast geographical presence that benefits from rising military spending around the globe.

In his State of the Union Address on February 28, President Trump reiterated his vow to massively increase defense spending, a policy that’s certain to boost Honeywell.

Jim Pearce, chief investment strategist of Personal Finance, added Honeywell to the Growth Portfolio on May 11, 2011. Since then, the stock has generated a total return of 137.17%.

Jim also serves as chief investment strategist of Breakthrough Tech Profits. As such, he recognizes that Honeywell provides the best of both worlds: it’s a diversified industrial giant as well as a tech innovator.

Russian spies and the New Cold War…

“I keep reading about Russian cyber attacks against American politicians. There must be an investment play in all of this international espionage.” — Dan W.

The evidence is clear that hackers in Russia were behind cyber attacks against the Democrats in the 2016 presidential election. Less clear is whether this brazen cyber espionage was initiated at the behest of Russian President Vladimir Putin, to help Donald Trump. But signs point in Putin’s direction.

As hacking attacks of all types grow in frequency around the world, cyber security stocks are poised for market-beating growth and should weather the expected economic downturn in 2017 better than most investments.

One of my favorite cyber security stocks is Cisco Systems (NSDQ: CSCO), a leader in the field. The company’s networking equipment, routers and switches are found in public and private offices around the globe. End users are increasingly reliant on Cisco technology to foil cyber criminals.

In addition to continual innovation, one of Cisco’s biggest advantages in the cyber security space is the company’s pervasive client base, which has already installed the company’s equipment. That’s a ready-made “annuity” for the company of continual upgrades.

Good advice from a bad guy…

One final thought, courtesy of Gordon Gekko.

Oliver Stone’s 1987 movie Wall Street introduced the world to one of the most unforgettable heavies in cinema history: the corporate raider and financier, Gordon Gekko.

Michael Douglas won a Best Actor Oscar for his vivid performance as Gekko, the ruthless and cynical stock market manipulator whose reptilian nature is reflected in his name, which is a type of lizard.

And yet… some of the investment advice that Gekko imparts in the movie is pretty darned good. Stone, who wrote and directed the movie, says he learned about the markets by observing his father Louis, who worked as a stockbroker for more than 50 years. This knowledge shows in the script.

At one point in the movie, Gekko offers this quote from Sun-Tzu’s The Art of War: “Every battle is won before it’s ever fought.”

In other words, through preparation and doing your homework, you can guide the future outcome of your investment returns. Consider this newsletter as your preparation and homework, for winning life’s daily investing battles.
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#73
Don’t Mistake a Bull Market for Brains

Most investors do well in a bull market. But don’t mistake a bull market for brains.

Linda McDonough, chief investment strategist of Profit Catalyst Alert, puts it this way: “One thing is for sure, as I noted in my 2017 forecast in Investing Daily’s Personal Finance, I expect the stock market to be rocky this year.”

Below, I examine the latest dangers of today’s market and explain how to protect your portfolio.

Super investor Warren Buffett once said: “It’s only when the tide goes out that you learn who has been swimming naked.” Make sure you’re adequately clothed.

The yakkers on CNBC are hyperventilating about continual new highs in the broader markets. And that’s never a good sign. Look behind the splashy headlines that tout new highs for the major indices and you’ll see a disturbing trend: Last week, more NYSE stocks hit new 52-week lows than new 52-week highs.

As of this writing, more than one-third of stocks are already below their 200-day moving averages. It’s a red flag when a minority of stocks is propelling overall market performance.

Then, of course, there are valuations. The total U.S. stock market is now valued at more than 150% of the country’s annual gross domestic product. This value is far higher than historic norms and roughly the same during the market bubble of 2000.

Bullish sentiment among investment advisors has skyrocketed to the highest level in three decades and consumer confidence is at a 16-year high. These levels of giddy optimism are akin to the highs reached during the 1987 market peak.

Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve reports that the so-called “q” factor, which compares stock market values with the prices of actual corporate assets, is 1.0. The historical average is about 0.65. The forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio for the S&P 500 is 17.9, compared to the 10-year average of 14.4.

Many traders are taking bullish sentiment as evidence that consumer spending and economic growth will continue in 2017. Sure, consumer confidence remains high, but that’s a lagging indicator. Economic recoveries last about eight years on average; the current expansion is approaching its ninth year.

All of these exuberant readings are contrary indicators that historically have marked peaks. The Federal Reserve’s policy of keeping interest rates at rock bottom has clearly fueled this bull market, but that’s changing.

The Federal Reserve is meeting this Tuesday and Wednesday and will probably emerge from its confab with the announcement of an interest rate hike. Rising rates often trigger belated corrections.

As the analysts at Investing Daily pointed out on March 13:

“Fears of higher interest rates and more policy uncertainty from Washington DC gave traders the excuse they needed to sell stocks over the last two weeks.

As bad as that may have felt, since its record close on March 1, 2017, the Standard & Poor’s 500 Large Cap index of stocks had only dropped 1% by March. But things may change rapidly; the current technical picture is one of a market that is at a crucial decision point.”

The bull market turned eight last Thursday, but the birthday celebration was muted. As the stock market bubble continues to inflate, investors are bracing themselves for the inevitable day of reckoning.

Will the long-awaited correction come this year or can the market dodge the inevitable until 2018… or even 2019? Capital appreciation is only part of your goal; capital preservation is important, too. As we navigate an unpredictable investment climate, your watchword should be caution.

If you haven’t adjusted your portfolio accordingly, you’d better get on the stick. Investors typically don’t recognize irrational exuberance when they’re in the middle of it.

Rotate into non-cyclical, more stable companies that provide services that are consistently used regardless of market or economic conditions. Utility stocks are a great example. Spread your portfolio among large-cap, mid-cap, small-cap, growth and dividend stocks. One often ignored move is to invest in mid-caps, which provide greater growth potential than large-caps but less risk than small-caps.

There’s a fundamental rule underlying these tips: Don’t put all your eggs in one basket. Admittedly, that phrase has become a cliche, but it’s more appropriate than ever.

And above all, reduce your exposure to growth stocks.
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#74
Hi-Ho, Silver! The Bullish Case For The White Metal

It’s easy to see why gold is regaining its luster as an investment. Inflation is rising, governments around the world are awash in debt, geopolitical risk is worsening, and global stock markets are excessively valued. But many readers are asking me: what about silver?

Fact is, the “white metal” makes even more sense right now than gold.

Jim Fink, chief investment strategist of Velocity Trader, asserts: “The U.S. economy continues to strengthen, which bodes well for silver prices.”

I explain why silver is a smart play now, both as a portfolio hedge and a vehicle for market-crushing growth.

A bigger bang for your silver buck…

Gold and silver are traditional safe havens during times of market anxiety. But when gold prices rise, silver tends to rise even higher. Silver is considerably cheaper per ounce than gold; as gold climbs in price traders perceive a bigger bang for their buck with silver.

Case in point: during the gold bull market of June 2001 to August 2011, gold jumped from $270 an ounce to $1,889 an ounce, for a 600% gain. But over the same period, silver soared from $4 to over $43, for a 975% gain.

Industrial demand also plays a role. Both gold and silver are used in several industrial processes and consumer products, but silver is far more prevalent and crucial. Silver is a superb conductor of heat and electricity, making it an integral component in medicine, electronics, food processing, batteries, solar energy, textiles, and radiography, to cite only a partial list. Silver is found in computers, televisions, smartphones, calculators, cameras, watches, clocks, microwave ovens… the list goes on.

In photovoltaic manufacture alone, demand for silver in 2018 is expected to be about 75% greater than in 2015.

These indispensable uses for silver will continue increasing, even if the economy downturns in 2017 as some analysts fear. The activity in any individual application could dip, but overall silver demand will remain recession-resistant because without this versatile metal, many processes or products couldn’t exist.

The basic supply and demand equation also is favorable for silver. According to the Silver Institute’s 2016 World Silver Survey, there has been a physical silver supply deficit for the past three years because of falling production and rising demand.

The silver strategists at investment bank HSBC (NYSE: HSBC) echo Jim Fink’s bullishness on silver:

“In our view, any resurgence in investor uncertainty or ‘safe-haven’ demand, possibly based on geopolitical concerns, will bolster silver in 2017…

We also base our expectations on solid fundamentals, as mine supply is likely to contract while industrial and jewelry demand should increase. HSBC estimates that the silver supply deficit was 116 million ounces in 2016 and should reach 132 million ounces in 2017.”

How high can silver go? Predictions are all over the map, but consider this: during the uncertain 1970s, the price of silver rose more than 3,600% from its November 1971 low to its January 1980 high. A precedent exists for whopping gains in silver.

Conventional wisdom dictates that portfolios should contain at least 5% to 10% of precious metal assets as protection against economic downturns and market corrections. As this aging bull market staggers through its eighth year, a correction is likely ahead for global equity markets.

Rekindled inflation only makes the case more compelling. The Consumer Price Index increased 2.74% in February 2017 over the same month a year ago. Silver not only provides ballast and an inflation hedge to your portfolio, but it’s also set for outsized growth amid a broader market that’s dangerously overvalued.

Investors are catching on to silver’s appeal. The benchmark iShares Silver Trust ETF (NYSE: SLV) has gained 9% year to date, compared to a gain of 6% for the S&P 500.

The time to make a silver trade is now, before prices of the asset get bid sky high. If you wait until the bloviators on CNBC start flapping their gums about the opportunities in silver, it’ll be too late.
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#75
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